There are lots of famously quoted statements about the future and, so far at least, this one attributed to Admiral Bill Rowley hasn't been wrong. Yet, despite the difficulties and risks of prediction, we all end up making bets on the future, especially when it comes to our professional careers. We make assumptions about the way things will be in the future - things that will change or not change, opportunities that will open or close for us. Sometimes we make our choices by positive action, and sometimes by doing nothing.
Doug Lenat is a world renowned computer scientist who has made some big bets on the future himself, especially in terms of technology. In this opening session he’s going to make a few more predictions about our technology future, and especially as it affects the realm of data management. Beyond mere technical forecasting however, he’ll also give us some unique insights into the folly of trying to predict the future, and try to offer some explanation as to why we, as humans, so often get it wrong.
- Pitfalls in making predictions
- Why don't people make rational judgements? Why do they make choices against their best interests?
- Is knowledge really the key resource of the future? And if it is, can we really manage knowledge?
- What's with the profusion of "semantic technologies?" Will they (can they) deliver on the promises?
- Is there a new form of metadata on the horizon?
- What is human knowledge? Can it be understood by computers?